Adobe’s 43% Plunge Meets Wall Street’s 60% Upside Bet Amid AI Disruption Fears
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) shares hover NEAR a 52-week low of $259, marking a 43% collapse from its $453 peak. The downturn reflects a perfect storm: February's sector-wide software selloff erased $1 trillion in market value, with Adobe shedding 2.5%-5.4% in a single session alongside CrowdStrike and Atlassian. AI existential threats loom large as investors question legacy players' defenses against nimble competitors.
Figma emerges as Adobe's most immediate challenger, surging 14% after projecting $1.36B-$1.37B in 2026 revenue. Its AI credit model directly targets Adobe's Core creative software user base. Wall Street remains divided—17 analysts maintain buy ratings versus 15 holds—with a mean $413.60 price target implying 60% upside potential. FY2026 estimates suggest modest growth (12.1% EPS increase to $23.46), but institutional underweighting hits a four-year extreme.
